How have you chosen the constituencies for which you have made videos?
Essentially there are four groups of constituencies:
– the top 25 Conservative target seats (list here)
– the top 25 seats for the Conservatives to defend (list here)
– the seats the voting tool Remain United considers having the highest tactical voting potential (list here – note I am NOT affiliated to this tool though! I just find their method handy)
– seats that are in some way unusual or hard to call (based on this analysis)
With the overlap there was between these lists that totalled 128 constituencies.
At the request of some individuals (by all means contact me too!) further videos will be added, and listed here. So far these are:
Aberdeen South, Arfon, Battersea, Bournemouth East, Bournemouth West, Bradford South, Brecon and Radnorshire, Bridgwater and West Somerset, Buckingham, Cardiff North, Ceredigion, Cheltenham, Chesham and Amersham, Chingford and Woodford Green, Clwyd West, Croydon Central, Dewsbury, East Renfrewshire, Edinburgh North and Leith, Enfield Southgate, Guildford, Lewes, Maidenhead, New Forest East, New Forest West, Newport East, Newport West, North Devon, North Wiltshire, Portsmouth South, Reading East, Saffron Walden, South Cambridgeshire, South West Devon, South West Surrey, St Albans, Stoke-on-Trent North, Surrey Heath, The Wrekin, Totnes, Tunbridge Wells, Vale of Glamorgan, Wokingham.
Why are you recommending Labour and the Liberal Democrats so often?
See the answer above about the criteria – based on the initial 128 constituencies assessed. The total recommendations in the initial are:
76 Labour, 37 Liberal Democrat, 9 Scottish National Party, 3 Independent, 1 Green, 1 Plaid Cymru, 1 Other
I am not being sentimental here – I am simply assessing which parties are best placed to beat the Conservatives.
But you have three categories for the Liberal Democrats, and just 2 for Labour!
This is to do with the nature of the seats and the opinion polls.
There are essentially seven main types of seats:
Labour-Conservative marginals, held by Conservatives
Lib Dem-Conservative marginals, held by Conservatives
SNP-Conservative marginals, held by Conservatives
Labour-Conservative marginals, held by Labour
Lib Dem-Conservative marginals, held by Lib Dems
SNP-Conservative marginals, held by SNP
Three way marginals, held by the Conservatives, with Labour placed 2nd in 2017 and Lib Dems 3rd
It is these latter cases – where the Liberal Democrats could jump from 3rd to 2nd or even first – that have their own category.
The other way around – Conservatives followed by Liberal Democrats followed by Labour in 2017, with Labour poised to overtake the Liberal Democrats this time – simply do not exist
And then there are 22 complicated cases that are listed as Unique Constituencies
What is your methodology for your recommendations?
It’s explained here.
Why are you telling me how to vote?
I am not. Make up your own mind. But – as a number of these videos show (especially the unique cases), actually working out how to vote tactically is not an easy thing to do. I am trying to help a little. By all means disagree!
But Labour is not a Remain Party! Why recommend them?
Their position is for a second referendum on Brexit. That is enough for me. And it’s better than voting for the Conservatives. If it’s not enough for you, don’t vote for them.
There is no video for my constituency. Can you make one?
Now probably not. I have made 171 videos so far. And I think I ought to stop!